Postgame Reaction: State Drops a Close One to Carolina

January 11th. That was the date that had been scheduled for months for the first matchup between NC State and North Carolina since the Wolfpack notched the Tar Heels in the 2024 ACC Championship game. Normally the week leading into the State/Carolina matchup is one filled with plenty of trash talk, rude remarks, and constant bickering between the two fanbases. This year felt different though. Neither team has posted much to boast about this season. Both State and Carolina fans could agree that the season up to this point has been just "meh". Neither roster boasted a shining star or well known fan favorite like we have seen in just about every State/Carolina game ever. While there was some trash talk over social media between the fanbases, it wasn't nearly as loud or frequent, and the only trash talk from players was from some comments made by UNC freshman Ian Jackson. It just didn't feel like THAT game was only days away. But those circumstances boded well for the Wolfpack. There wasn't any spotlight on the matchup, no expectations. A home game, against a down UNC team, and the Wolfpack bested the Tar Heels in the most recent contest. Although the bickering and extracurriculars may have been subdued, the opportunity for State to post consecutive wins against the Tar Heels since the '02-'03 season never felt more prominent than Saturday.

The first half of the game was probably the worst half of basketball I have ever seen in all the times I have watched these 2 teams play. Ask about anyone and their answer probably wouldn't differ from that statement. A halftime score of 26-20, in favor of UNC, definitely doesn't give the fans much to cheer about or get fired up for heading into the 2nd half. State shot a pathetic 22.5% for the half, a lowly 8% from beyond the arc, and compiling an impressively low assist total of 1. That is just plain bad basketball, there's no other way to put it. Even with a decent shooting half, State takes a lead into halftime. While we have talked over and over about the shot selection from Kevin Keatts coached teams, and there were several of those shots in the first half, many of the looks the Pack got were good looks. In an offensive system that struggles at times to generate good shots, when multiple quality opportunities present themselves they have to be knocked down. Many fans ask this question just about every time State takes the floor about any given player, "how can he make THAT but not the layup from earlier?". That question was in full force in the first half except fans were questioning if ANY shot could be hit.

The second half brought about some better basketball (hard to be worse than that first half) but still not quality by any means. The shooting struggles continued for State in the 2nd. A decent amount of quality looks that were missed, a couple of layups botched, some untimely missed free throws, it just felt that every time State was about to make a run and take the game a missed shot or turnover would bring the momentum to a screeching halt. Defensively the Pack wasn't too bad on Saturday afternoon. State did have some costly mishaps, which we have come to see from time to time with such an aggressive defensive style coach Keatts wants to play. This can be costly as we have seen in the past and it proved to be again on Saturday. A couple of defensive breakdowns led to wide open 3s for Carolina in the 2nd half and the worst of all and aggressive overcommit from Ben Middlebrooks closing out on Eliot Cadeau led to the game winning dunk for the Heels. Even with that lapse, State still had 20 seconds to counter and either tie or take the lead. Marcus Hill was the hot hand all day for State. Hill scored the Pack's first 10 points and led the team in scoring with 20. With the exception of a couple shots hit by Jayden Taylor in the 2nd half, if State needed a bucket the ball was in Marcus Hill's hands. One would think that is who would take the last shot right? Wrong. As a whole, the Wolfpack fan base has grown extremely skeptical of State's ability to score in a designed set coming out of a timeout. The success rate for these situations in the Keatts era feels miserably low, wish I had an actual number for that. Regardless, the best player for you that night needs to be the guy with the basketball when the game is on the line. State didn't do that. For one, the play took far to long to develop. And second, having Jayden Taylor driving the lane in a 1-on-1 situation to try to tie the game, just to have his shot blocked, is not the best recipe for success. Taylor has struggled in his time in Raleigh with finishing around the rim. His game is more suited for jumpers or hesitation pull ups, he's not a slasher. Hill however IS a slasher. His bread and butter is getting to the rim and that is how he's done the majority of his scoring all year. If he needed to resort to a short pull up jumper, that is in his bag as well. I don't understand why Taylor was the option and that appeared to be practically be the only option in that set. I know Carolina was probably looking for Hill to get the ball as well, but with how far out State started the possession, Carolina would not be denying the ball to him 35 feet from the basket. Hill had the ball for about 3 second the entire possession and that was just as a last resort to Dontrez Styles so the Pack could escape a 5 second call.

The Pack shot a woeful 37% for the game, 16% from three point land, and had only 7 assists. State's season averages are 45% shooting and just over 13 assists per game. In a season where opportunities to boost an NCAA Tournament resume are dwindling at a rapid rate, State can not afford to have that type of performance. State held Carolina to 43% shooting, 4 points below their season average. The opportunities to win this game presented themselves over and over again and yet the Wolfpack refused to take advantage. Even in the moments where State took the lead, it didn't last for long. In the final 2 possessions of the game, State turned the ball over and ended up having the shot to tie the game blocked.

This brings up the question we've asked all season, does this team have any shot makers? Early on it could be credited to early season woes but as more and more time goes on I believe the answer is clear. This team does not have a true go-to shot maker. Marcus Hill is the closest option to that, but he is only effective inside the arc and even his jumpers can be questionable at times. There is no true 3 point threat on this roster. Styles hasn't shown he can consistently hit shots from beyond the arc, Taylor is the inconsistent and has a very questionable shot selection, O'Connell hasn't been the regular 3 point threat we thought he could be, and although Breon Pass has been the best long range shooting option he is playing limited minutes and had 2 crucial turnovers on Saturday. Every Keatts team during his time in Raleigh has had a "killer instinct" type of player. Al Freeman, Markell Johnson, Devon Daniels, DJ Burns, DJ Horne, if there was a point State needed a bucket we knew there was a guy on the floor who could go score. This team just doesn't have that. In a style of basketball that relies so heavily on guard play and getting players in 1-on-1 situations, how can success be expected when that crucial piece is missing? The inconsistency on offense has been frustrating but due to the fact that there truly is no go-to guy for this team I unfortunately don't see any improvements coming.

I wrote about this after the Virginia game, since State did not collect any resume improving W's in the non-conference this group would have to be stout during ACC play. This season in the ACC is not like in years past though. Rather than quality resume building opportunities being just about every game in the conference slate, there are only a select few resume builders now. The mindset for any ACC team shooting to make the tournament is "win the games you're supposed to". That mantra remains true for State, but a quality win is still needed. After watching UNC yesterday and a couple of times earlier this season, I don't believe that is a tournament team but some bracketology experts think otherwise. So lets play along and look at it from the State standpoint. A team viewed as a tournament team comes to your building, you beat this team in the last meeting, you HAVE to win a game or two against teams deemed "in" the tournament, and the atmosphere for this contest is the best the Lenovo Center will see all year. The recipe for success was there, and again the Pack didn't take advantage. It sucks that only 5 games into conference play it feels as if the route for State to return to the Big Dance will be a repeat of last season. As I've said before though about many sports, confidence is a crazy thing. State has 3 very winnable games in a row coming up (@ VT, Cal, and SMU). Another reason dropping that game to UNC hurts. Momentum really could have been built heading into that stretch and a 5 game win streak was very possible. That opportunity is now gone. If this team wants to rebound and have any chance of success, it has to start it here. There is not a better segment of the schedule to try and build some momentum. It's, yet again, do or die time. Do I think this group is a tournament team? No but I also realize college basketball is a whirlwind and a team can go from not even in consideration to solidly in the field in just a matter of weeks. This team doesn't have the weapons like we've seen in the past, but neither does the majority of teams in the ACC either. It's a tall mountain to climb and the big time missed opportunity on Saturday is going to sting. How does this team react?

-Bobby Black